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2025 UFC Fight Night Preview - Rebecki vs. Duncan:
Can Reabesti solve The Problem on Saturday's bout?

July 31, 2025 by Marc Jerbs

Mateusz Rębecki and Chris Duncan are scheduled to collide in a highly anticipated lightweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night this Saturday, August 2, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. As the co-main event, this matchup carries major implications for the lightweight rankings and pits two stylistically contrasting fighters against one another - Polish grappling specialist Rębecki and Scotland's hard-hitting striker Duncan.

Fighter Breakdown: Key Stats and Background

Mateusz Rębecki
Nicknamed "Rebeasti" or "Chinczyk," Mateusz Rębecki is a seasoned Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and a fierce competitor from Poland with a professional MMA record of 20-2. Fighting out of a southpaw stance at 5'7" with a 66" reach, Rębecki is known for his aggressive forward pressure, elite-level grappling, and relentless ground control.

He began his martial arts journey in 2014, focusing on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling—skills that now form the backbone of his MMA game. A former lightweight champion in Poland's Fight Exclusive Night (FEN) promotion, Rębecki racked up nine straight wins there before transitioning to the UFC. He currently trains with the Berserkers Team in Szczecin.

Statistically, he lands 4.70 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy, while absorbing 4.13 per minute and maintaining a 54% defensive rate. However, his grappling numbers are his standout feature: 3.84 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 75% success rate, with 0.8 submission attempts on average. He has recorded 10 first-round finishes and seven submission victories. In his last appearance, Rębecki earned a split decision over Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308—a fight awarded "Fight of the Night." His only recent setback was a TKO loss to veteran Diego Ferreira in May 2024.

Chris Duncan
Scottish fighter Chris "The Problem" Duncan holds a 13-2 professional record and brings heavy hands and an aggressive striking style to the Octagon. At 5'10" with a 71" reach, he enjoys a noticeable size advantage over Rębecki and competes from an orthodox stance.

Training at American Top Team (ATT), Duncan benefits from high-level sparring and coaching alongside elite fighters. He is best known for his knockout power—securing eight KO wins, including four in the first round.

Duncan lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy and absorbs 3.63 per minute, with a 47% striking defense rate. While his grappling game is active (averaging 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes), his 43% takedown accuracy and 37% takedown defense suggest room for improvement—particularly against grappling-heavy opponents. Notably, Duncan has never been submitted in the UFC. He most recently defeated Andrey Pulyaev by unanimous decision in March 2025 and previously scored a submission victory over Jordan Vucenic, showing some well-rounded skills despite his striker reputation.

Rębecki vs. Duncan Sports Bet Odds

Mateusz "Reabesti" Rębecki is the favorite to win the match. Here are our latest odds:

• Rębecki as the favorite has a money line of -210 while Duncan as the underdog has +180.
• Reabesti winning by KO/TKO or DQ has a money line of +200.
• Duncan pinning Rębecki via submission has a money line of +1000.

Tactical Preview: A Classic Grappler vs. Striker Matchup

This matchup epitomizes the classic stylistic battle between a submission-savvy grappler and a knockout-focused striker.

Rębecki's Path to Victory
Rębecki will aim to close the distance early, utilize chain wrestling to bring the fight to the ground, and dominate from top position. His 75% takedown accuracy gives him a clear advantage against Duncan's 37% takedown defense. Once grounded, Rębecki's superior BJJ and pressure can lead to submissions or damaging ground-and-pound. His average fight time of 9:47 suggests he can maintain a high pace and execute his grappling strategy over multiple rounds.

Duncan's Game Plan
For Duncan, the key lies in keeping the fight standing. With advantages in height, reach, and power, he will look to manage range and punish Rębecki as he closes the gap. He possesses genuine fight-ending power, and a single well-placed strike could swing the momentum. However, if he fails to stuff early takedowns or escape from the bottom, he risks being smothered by Rębecki's ground game. Duncan's average fight time of 10:32 hints at his ability to go the distance but also raises questions about his endurance in grappling-heavy contest.

What to Expect: Keys to Victory and Likely Outcomes

• Rębecki must impose his wrestling early and often, keep Duncan grounded, and hunt for submissions or dominant positions.
• Duncan must avoid clinches, circle effectively, and look to land clean power shots—especially in the early rounds.

X-Factor: The outcome hinges on whether Duncan can prevent or survive takedowns long enough to let his striking make an impact. If not, Rębecki's grinding style could break him down.

Final Thought

With both fighters carrying momentum and clear strengths in opposing disciplines, this co-main event offers a compelling clash of styles that could steal the show. Whether it is Rębecki's suffocating grappling or Duncan's explosive power that prevails, fans can expect a high-stakes, action-packed bout that may well shape the future of the UFC's lightweight landscape.

Whittaker vs. de Ridder Tale of the Tape

Mateusz "Reabesti" Rebecki	VS	Chris "The Problem" Duncan
20-2-0	Record	13-2-0
Loss	Last Fight	Win
Poland	Country	Scotland
5' 7"	Height	5' 10"
158.70 LBS	Weight	154.30 LBS
66.0"	Reach	71.5"
36.5"	Leg Reach	41.0"
48%	Significant Strikes	45%
54%	Strikes Defense	47%
75%	Takedown Accuracy	43%
45%	Takedown Defense	37%

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